The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a yearly world energy outlook on Monday that predicted the United States will become the biggest producer of oil in the world by 2017, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia.
The IEA is the most respected energy forecaster of the developed world. According to its forecast, the so-called shale oil revolution is shaking up the global energy landscape. One indication of these winds of change is the emergency of the U.S. as an oil superpower.
The report also predicts that fossil fuels will retain their paramount importance in the global energy mix. Oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa have increased their output, which were further supported by a 30% jump in subsidies from last year.
According to the IEA forecast, the global demand for oil will increase to 7 mb/d by 2020 and surpass 99 mb/d in 2035. Oil prices will reach $125/barrel in real terms (over $215/barrel in nominal terms) in 2035.
This current decade will reportedly experience a surge in unconventional and deep-water oil development that will increase the supply of non-OPEC members. However, after 2020, the world will increase its reliance on OPEC.
Next to the US, Iraq is predicted to overtake Russia as the second biggest global exporter of oil. Iraq will account for 45% of the growth in global oil production towards 2035.
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